Saturday, March 1, 2014

Russia Will Feel the Pain

There are a lot of unanswered questions surrounding Russia's invasion of Crimea. It may turn into a shooting war, Russia could decide to take all of Ukraine, or even more of Easter Europe. However it turns out, they may have hurt themselves more than they hurt Ukraine.
U.S. or NATO military intervention is highly unlikely, but their involvement is now certain. Chances are, the U.S. will pursue economic sanctions against Russia, which will definitely hurt considering their current economic situation. And with Ukraine's current turmoil regarding western and Russian loyalties boiling over, this will certainly push them into the western camp. Even Russian apologists in Ukraine can't look past an armed invasion into Ukrainian territory. NATO will be quick to strengthen ties with Ukraine following this episode.
There will be even more trouble on the horizon for Russia. Their old pal Georgia is pursuing NATO membership, and in order to shore up allies in the Black Sea, their membership will most likely be accelerated. If Ukraine tends west, and Georgia becomes a NATO member, the Black Sea will not be a welcoming place for Russia.
In the end, a shooting war isn't good for anyone. Ukraine will be in shambles, and Russia will be severely depleted, as Ukraine isn't a pushover like Georgia. Russia will be an international pariah, with wide-ranging and crippling sanctions. The west certainly shouldn't be involved militarily, but it's time to stand up to Russia and hold them accountable for their actions.

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